Daily Murders in the nation Drop Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The typical count of everyday murders per month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent official figures. But, public safety experts have warned that homicide numbers might not indicate improved countrywide safety.

Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September of last year. This announcement was shared by the director of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen over these past months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the smallest figure of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her national security strategy for an ostensibly sharper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety experts cautioned that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was problematic. This is notably true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the inclination to properly recognize and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily killings was similarly concerning because it may obscure periods when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico is still grappling with severe bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas remarked.